On stage at Legal Geek in 2024, I was asked about my predictions for Generative AI and law.
I replied that I am no longer making any public predictions, because if I do so, within 24 hours OpenAI will launch something that will completely overhaul all existing assumptions.
The next day, OpenAI introduced reasoning models.
Many came to ask me: how did I know that?
I didn’t. But it was among the scenarios that I was working with.
Futures are plural
My issue with a lot of the future of law predictions is that most of them are sounding very certain and inevitable: here is what is going to happen.
Yet with so many moving pieces, ranging from AI companies, startups, law firms, insurers, clients, regulators, including but not limited to bar associations, law schools, pundits, partners, and good old fashioned force majeure, it is nearly impossible to say with absolute certainty what will the future of law look like over a longer time horizon.
Futures studies treats futures as plural. Instead of just one future, the present can evolve into a whole range of situations. Some futures we want (collections up by 20%), some we probably don’t (another pandemic), some sound more likely (there will be more legal engineering roles), some less (bar associations will admit practicing legal agents by 2027).
Every strategic decision is a bet on a particular future: Kirkland & Ellis investing $500m in a fund formation platform, Legora launching Legal AI Scholars Program, Anna Stárková’s leaving White & Case to become a legal engineer.
Thinking in multiple futures is part hope and part hedging. The gist is not to say which one will happen exactly, but rather to maximise the potential upsides from desirable scenarios and minimize risks from undesirable ones (= a very lawyerly thing to do).
In other words, prioritise being ready over being right.
Legal Futures as a discipline
If we accept that the futures are uncertain and things can go in a variety of ways, we have a few options.
We can prepare for the most likely contingencies, hoard reserves, brace ourselves for whatever is coming, or daydream about everything going right.
And (and this is my favorite) we can also look at the futures we like and ask ourselves, what would need to happen for this future to become a reality.
Legal Futures is about exploring and shaping the future of law, not merely anticipating it.
And given that legal tech is now experiencing unprecedented growth and everything is up for grabs, the ability to exercise this sort of agency just got a 10x boost.
Final provisions
Futures of law are uncertain, plural, and open to being designed.
It does not matter if you are personally convinced that in 2027, an AI-native law firm will eat up the entire market, or that robo judges will take over the world.
Who cares if I told you so, if we don’t do anything about it.
This is part I of Legal Futures series. In Part II, we will talk about how futures are formed, analyzed, and processed.
In the meantime, you can read a recap of a Legal Futures workshop I led at my law school exploring how legal education can respond to AI reshaping junior legal roles.
